In all the drama around the Bali conference on climate change, it was easy to lose track of what was decided. The process established there is that there are now two years of negotiation to decide on what will replace the Kyoto Protocol. In December 2008, there will be an interim meeting to check on progress, and then the intention is to have the wording of a new protocol sorted out in December 2009.

The timing is important: it is clear that what will really unlock the process is a change of policy from a new President in America. The US election is in November 2008, the new President will take office in January 2009, and then the serious policy-making and negotiating can begin, with nearly a year to do it. All the Democrat candidates support a cut in US carbon emissions of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, with an emissions trading system to operate it. Amongst the Republicans, Huckabee and McCain appear to have better policies than Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson, but they are all likely to be an improvement on George Bush. The recent change of government in Australia has already produced a complete shift in policy there.

At Bali it was also agree to put more of an emphasis on the reduction of deforestation as a way to slow down climate change - and more of an emphasis too on "enhanced action on adaptation" to the climate change already happening. There was no agreed target for the emissions reductions to be achieved from the new protocol, or for the maximum temperature rise considered acceptable - but the wording of the "Bali Action Plan" resolution says "deep cuts in global emissions will be required".

From our correspondent in Westminster Jan 2008